Steps
Enter with one thesis (setup A)
Price disagrees; thesis morphs to setup B
Stop is moved or removed to ‘give it room’
Size is added to ‘improve average’
Time horizon expands to avoid admitting error
Exit becomes forced (margin) or capitulation
Intervention points:
- Cut size at the first sign the chain is forming.
- Pause when you start “fixing” the last loss with a new trade.
- Stop trading when execution quality degrades.
Antidote
Label the trade type at entry. If the thesis changes, resize or exit. No morphing with the same size.
- Stop the sequence: one loss is information, two losses is a warning, three losses is a system failure. Have a hard cut.
- Reduce degrees of freedom: fewer pairs, fewer timeframes, fewer discretionary choices.
- Re-enter only after reset: calm state, checklist passed, size reduced.
Notes
The moment of truth
Thesis drift begins when you stop using invalidation and start using hope.
Related truth: Thesis drift kills accounts.
Field checklist
- Write the rule in observable terms: if X, then Y.
- Remove choices under stress. Choices become rationalizations.
- Track the precursor: what state were you in before the mistake?
- Make deviations costly (size down, pause, review).
- Turn lessons into gates, not notes.