FXRISK Manual

Correlation Breakdown

A regime shift where relationships between instruments tighten, flip sign, or become unstable.

Why it matters

If you assume stable correlations, you will under-estimate portfolio drawdowns. Breakdown is how diversification turns into a single bet.

Trading use: the point is not vocabulary. The point is prediction: what changes when this shows up?

Common trap

Relying on recent correlation estimates as if they were laws.

Example

Pairs that were uncorrelated in calm markets move together during a funding shock.

Operational cue: if you can’t point to it on the chart, in the DOM, or in your broker logs, treat it as a story and trade smaller.

Notes

Quick rule

  • If you see this repeatedly, you are in a different regime than your model assumes.
  • Regime change usually means position size change.
  • When in doubt: trade smaller, or don’t trade.