FXRISK Manual

Toxic Flow

Trade flow that a liquidity provider expects will lose them money (e.g., consistently trading right before price moves). It’s “toxic” from the provider’s perspective.

Why it matters

It explains why spreads widen, fills worsen, or last look rejects increase for certain behaviors or times.

Decision use: treat this term as a risk input. If you can’t observe it, you can’t size for it.

Common trap

Assuming execution is neutral. The other side adapts to patterns.

Example

A trader hits quotes immediately after news bursts. The LP sees negative markouts and widens or rejects.

Operational cue: if you can’t point to it on the chart, in the DOM, or in your broker logs, treat it as a story and trade smaller.

Notes

Quick rule

  • If you see this repeatedly, you are in a different regime than your model assumes.
  • Regime change usually means position size change.
  • When in doubt: trade smaller, or don’t trade.