FXRISK Manual

Different Instruments Have Different Physics

You can’t copy-paste one risk model across assets; each instrument has its own hours, liquidity, gap behavior, and contract rules.

Mechanism

Markets are not interchangeable. The “same stop” behaves differently depending on:
- trading hours (gaps vs continuous),
- liquidity depth (slippage),
- venue rules (halts, limit moves),
- and payoff structure (linear vs convex).

When traders blow up in new products, it’s usually not because the idea was wrong. It’s because they applied the wrong physics: wrong sizing assumptions, wrong gap assumptions, wrong execution assumptions.

Practical framing: the market is a feedback system. Your job is to remove the behaviors that produce the same loss pattern, not to “feel better” about it.

  • Turn recurring mistakes into hard gates.
  • Reduce degrees of freedom when you’re losing.
  • Make the next decision simpler than the last.
How it kills accounts

Port a strategy to a new instrument → assume similar fills and volatility → ignore contract rules → surprise move/halts/gaps → losses exceed plan → forced liquidation.

How it kills accounts:

  1. The rule exists only in your head.
  2. Stress arrives and you improvise.
  3. Improvisation becomes inconsistency.
  4. Inconsistency becomes random results.
  5. Random results become a slow bleed.
Rule that survives

Before trading a new instrument, write the “physics sheet”: hours, typical spread/slippage, margin rules, and worst-case gap behavior.
Reduce size until you have live evidence of execution quality.
If the payoff is convex (options), rethink stops and risk entirely.

Rule that survives:

  • Write the trigger in observable terms.
  • Write the action in one sentence.
  • Write the penalty for breaking it.
Example archetype

A trader moves from FX to small-cap stocks and expects continuous liquidity. A halt occurs, then a gap reopens the next print far away. The stop didn’t ‘fail’; the instrument behaved as designed.

Tell: if your rule isn’t enforceable, it’s a suggestion. Suggestions don’t survive stress.

Deep dive

Physics sheet

Write what can happen when you are not allowed to trade.

Related: Stop-losses fail in volatility spikes and Most blowups are operational.

Glossary: gap risk, slippage, payoff distribution.


Field checklist

  • Write the rule in observable terms: if X, then Y.
  • Remove choices under stress. Choices become rationalizations.
  • Track the precursor: what state were you in before the mistake?
  • Make deviations costly (size down, pause, review).
  • Turn lessons into gates, not notes.

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